SH122024 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name totloss
Vanuatu $ .09 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ .09 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Vanuatu          1,918    

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:          1,918    

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 38 47 81 142 -1 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 44 52 87 118 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 51 57 122 260 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 48 62 143 370 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 434 1227 2544 2488 -1 -1 INCREASING
JTWC 51 74 132 168 -1 -1 INCREASING
UKM 53 65 152 307 -1 -1 INCREASING

(7 rows)

Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast

Report generated by at Sun 11 Feb 2024 07:38:45 UTC
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